Yesterday, the first edition of a new publication called the Lethal Minds Journal was released on Substack. The journal is the result of 27 submissions from veterans and military members (mostly from the U.S.), including an article I wrote about Chinese foreign policy and the potential consequences of their flirtatious relationship with the Taliban in Afghanistan. I’m honored to have taken part in the project and I hope you will take some time to read some of the other thoughtful submissions from other veteran writers.
That being said, I figured I would share my contribution here as well for those that may not have seen or heard of Lethal Minds yet. If you choose to subscribe, I’m sure I will be submitting more work for them in the coming editions, the next of which will be on July 1st.
Full disclosure: foreign policy can sometimes be a bit dry, but I will continue to try and put a personal twist on these types of pieces, having been to most of the countries I talk about. I hope you enjoy and feedback is always welcomed.
If you grew up like me, you were told that the biggest threat to American democracy was foreign terrorism. You probably remember 9/11. If you were too young, you would surely have been taught about it from an early age. Our generation was sold on the Global War on Terror to send a message to Al Qaeda, the Taliban, and their sympathizers based on our perception of this threat to our way of life. While our anger was exploited in the Middle East, our backs were turned to a growing titan that we must address.
China has slowly but decisively been rising into an economic superpower, surpassing many Western nations already due to their mercantilist and aggressive foreign policy. Chinese projects and deals like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the various investments in construction in Africa are turning Chinese foreign policy into one of the most expansive endeavors of modern times. The rise of China has captured the attention not just of their rivals, but of other groups that fight for a rise to power, and those that may have an interest in seeing the West decline.
Why does any of this matter to the average enlistee? This is about situational awareness and a cultural change within the ranks. Terrorism is still a threat, but often foreign militant groups are nothing without the support of powerful nation states. Attention must be shifted to the threat of China’s expansion and cooperation with our enemies.
Following a chaotic and dramatic exit of American and coalition forces from Afghanistan, the Taliban quickly and publicly declared China as their closest ally in rebuilding Afghanistan. The payoff for the Taliban in such a relationship is clear: significant funding from a rising superpower, connections that could aid Afghanistan in entering the global economy, and protection from outside intervention in the future. The question is: What is in it for China? Under what conditions would China support the Taliban, a former terrorist organization responsible for human rights violations? The Taliban assures China that this relationship will be mutually beneficial.
The brief history of the Taliban-China relationship begins with a $2.8 billion deal in 2007 for China to mine copper in Mes Aynak, Afghanistan[1]. The relationship between the US-backed Afghan government and China was rocky, but it weakened further when Afghan authorities caught and arrested a Chinese espionage unit keeping their eyes on the Uyghurs suspected of terrorist activity[2]. Fast forward to the summer of 2021: One month after the first conversation between the Chinese foreign policy minister and Taliban spokesmen, the world witnessed the catastrophic and demoralizing ending for the US mission in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan is unable to survive on its own, at least for now. While China is extremely self-interested and will stop at nothing to achieve the “Chinese Dream,” a factor that is tampering with that dream is the Chinese-separatist terrorist groups that have fled to Afghanistan. China will support the Taliban if they believe Afghanistan will provide a stable environment for their economic and political goals, such as the BRI and CPEC. By using the Taliban as a means of security, China will have their “guaranteed” security for their laborers in the region, as well as a deterrence for other Islamic terror groups from using Afghanistan as a training ground to plot attacks against China.
Can China Benefit from Supporting the Taliban?
China can certainly benefit from the Taliban’s willingness to provide cheap security should they decides to include Afghanistan in the BRI. Given Afghanistan’s poor track record with harboring Chinese separatists, China will want evidence that the Taliban will protect their laborers, infrastructure, and investment. The Taliban has given its assurance that they will cooperate with China in disallowing Chinese-separatist groups from operating in the country.
What Are the Risks?
China acknowledges that Central Asia and the Middle East offer challenges that they call the “three evils” – terrorism, extremism, and separatism[3]. Although the Taliban is no longer really a terrorist organization, since they have complete control over the Afghan government, the country still attracts terrorism from other groups. China must also consider that an investment in Afghanistan may not offer promising returns while the country is still reeling from a 20-year war.
The Terror Love Triangle
The Islamic State in the Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) operates in Afghanistan, and their primary objective is to overthrow the government in Pakistan. As an ally of Pakistan, China must be guaranteed that ISIS-K will not have room in Afghanistan to plan and/or coordinate attacks. ISIS-K and the Taliban have historically fought over control in certain regions of Afghanistan, Pakistan of course supporting the Taliban. Although Pakistan has previously used proxy groups against India (or at least expressed interest in doing so), it is unlikely they will go against China’s wish.
The Conditions
China expects that the Taliban will cut ties with anyone that is against China’s interests, including terrorist groups, and Western countries. They also expect the Taliban to promote peace in Afghanistan and for better or for worse, behave themselves. The specific conditions are as follows:
First, the Taliban must prove to China that they will not support the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) or Chinese separatists. Unsurprisingly, this is the first condition since China has named terrorism “the enemy of mankind”[4]. Second, they must reform their government to promote a stable environment with the best interests of their citizens in mind. This, as any GWOT vet understands, is highly unlikely to happen, but Taliban control over the media may allow them to demonstrate an acceptable image as China’s dancing monkeys. Third, they must keep a distance from the United States or other forces that are hostile towards China. Interestingly, the Taliban has explicitly stated that it hopes to maintain a diplomatic relationship with the US[5]. However, a relationship with the US is also unlikely. Lastly, they must promote improved human rights, protect the rights of women and children, and consider a more moderate government. Are you rolling your eyes yet? Only if these conditions are met will China consider giving the Taliban the support it desperately wants.
The Outcome Thus Far
The reality is that the Taliban has already been upholding their end of the would-be deal with China by diligently working to rid Afghanistan of Uyghur militants[6]. This being the primary concern for China, the Taliban has made this a priority in Afghanistan. It has been reported that the Taliban removed the fighters of the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) away from the Chinese border and eastbound, indicating to China that they are willing to cooperate. Journalists in Afghanistan have reported that the Taliban closely monitors the behavior of its members in front of Western media to avoid a worldwide demonstration of their daily human rights abuses[7]. The perceived improvement in behavior, even if it is only a dog-and-pony show, should be enough to satisfy the demand to put on a more “moderate” face and keep the best interests of Afghan citizens in mind.
China is not far off from providing the support that the Taliban needs. They were first in line to provide humanitarian support to Afghanistan, mostly through providing COVID-19 vaccinations and medical supplies[8]. China has a long history of making investments in developing countries, namely African countries like Djibouti, where Chinese investment makes up 70% of their GDP[9]. Although Djibouti has lesser problems in dealing with terrorism than Afghanistan, case studies of China’s choice to invest in developing countries signifies that they are willing to mitigate risk and use their resources to properly build their developing investment infrastructure. The BRI is one of the most significant foreign policy decisions that China has made throughout its history, and it is a tool that is being used in their pursuit of hegemony. This is what makes it an issue of international security.
Pakistan has a history of mutually beneficial support with the Taliban, recently praising the takeover of Kabul, declaring the action “breaking the chains of slavery”[10]. With that said, Pakistan has been putting pressure on the Taliban to disallow terrorist groups from operating in Afghanistan[11]. A China-backed Taliban is a force likely to eradicate ISIS-K and other groups that could have been potentially used as proxy groups.
The image of a Chinese-funded Taliban will anger GWOT veterans, rightfully so. Although an agreement with the Taliban may seem like a radical idea, it will only happen because of China’s self-interested pursuit of earning strategic advantages. Geographically, Afghanistan will provide yet another opportunity for strategic investment for China while securing more of its western border. Additionally, this will add a direct avenue to Iran, who is now a partner for the BRI as well. The Taliban has given its word publicly that Chinese separatist groups will have no haven in Afghanistan if they are in charge, which they have already acted on. Although the Taliban has stated that “friendly” ties to the US would be nice, they have no reason to cooperate with the US if China requests that they maintain distance. The Taliban also is likely to put on a “moderate” appearance in front of the media, especially western media, to appease China’s request for a more moderate stance. Since the Taliban will meet China’s conditions, China will choose to include Afghanistan in the BRI and consequently support the Taliban.
[1] Hart, Matthew P. Funaiole, Brian. “Afghanistan Is No Treasure Trove for China.” Foreign Policy (blog). Accessed May, 2022. https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/28/afghanistan-china-rare-earth-minerals-latin-america-lithium/.
[2] O’Donnell, Lynne. “Afghanistan Wanted Chinese Mining Investment. It Got a Chinese Spy Ring Instead.” Foreign Policy (blog). Accessed May, 2022. https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/27/afghanistan-china-spy-ring-mcc-mining-negotiations-mineral-wealth/.
[3] Hoh, Anchi. “China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia and the Middle East.” Digest of Middle East Studies 28, no. 2 (November 2019): 241–76. https://doi.org/10.1111/dome.12191.
[4] “FULL TEXT: Remarks by China’s Ambassador at United Nations Briefing.” Accessed May, 2022. https://newsus.cgtn.com/news/2022-02-10/FULL-TEXT-Remarks-by-China-s-Ambassador-at-United-Nations-briefing-17wGX4AcyT6/index.html
[5] United States Institute of Peace. “China and the U.S. Exit from Afghanistan: Not a Zero-Sum Outcome.” Accessed May, 2022. https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/09/china-and-us-exit-afghanistan-not-zero-sum-outcome.
[6] Standish, Reid. “Taliban ‘Removing’ Uyghur Militants From Afghanistan’s Border With China.” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, October 5, 2021, sec. China In Eurasia. https://www.rferl.org/a/afghanistan-taliban-uyghurs-china/31494226.html.
[7] Gross, Terry. “A More Moderate Taliban? An Afghan Journalist Says Nothing Has Changed.” NPR, October 7, 2021, sec. Asia. https://www.npr.org/2021/10/07/1043977259/taliban-takeover-journalist-najibullah-quraishi-afghanistan.
[8] “China in Afghanistan: How Beijing Engages the Taliban.” Accessed May, 2022. https://thediplomat.com/2021/12/china-in-afghanistan-how-beijing-engages-the-taliban/.
[9] Chaudhury, Dipanjan Roy. “China Widens Presence in Indian Ocean through Massive Inroads in Djibouti.” The Economic Times, October 1, 2021. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/china-widens-presence-in-indian-ocean-through-massive-inroads-in-djibouti/articleshow/86676234.cms?from=mdr.
[10] Council on Foreign Relations. “Pakistan’s Support for the Taliban: What to Know.” Accessed May 9, 2022. https://www.cfr.org/article/pakistans-support-taliban-what-know.
[11] Mehmood, Arshad, and the Media Line. “Islamabad Warns Taliban Not to Shelter Pakistani Terrorists on Afghan Soil.” The Jerusalem Post, April 19, 2022.