International Consequences of the Afghan Crisis
Analyzing future geopolitics in the Middle East through some personal experiences
During a short mission in Africa where we were supporting the French Air Force, my team sat intermingled with the French on the flight home. I don’t speak a word of French, but one of the universal languages of military culture, and a surefire way to make a connection, is exchanging uniform patches. I personally tried to do this every single time I interacted with foreign militaries or other units/branches. Typically we each wear the other member’s patch during the rest of the mission together. I pointed at a French airman and made the commonly-understood “want to trade?” motion with my hands, holding one of my unit patches. He excitedly agreed, but what he pointed to was not my colorful, unique unit patch - he wanted my US flag patch.
As the unfortunate situation unfolds in Afghanistan, I am wondering what significance the US flag will have to our allies going forward, if any.
I said before that I have no regrets about serving in Afghanistan or any of the missions I was part of, and that remains true. My concern moving forward is that the international community will lose (or has lost) massive respect for our reliability. Countries that supported the US military in Afghanistan, such as France, the UK, and Australia have requested to extend the deadline to withdrawal from Afghanistan to allow more time to evacuate their citizens. President Biden said he would not change his decision to meet the deadline of August 31st. Who will trust us enough to support us in future endeavors?
Countries that rely on the support of the United States may be wondering if they are more vulnerable than ever, such as Taiwan and Ukraine, as well as the Gulf-states that the United States has supported for years. Each move on the international chessboard has geopolitical consequences, and it is becoming apparent that with the US’s quick departure, many countries are watering at the mouth for opportunities in the region.
Who stands to benefit in Afghanistan?
China is obviously the most prevalent force that has interests in Afghanistan. Chinese leadership has already begun talks with Taliban leadership and will most likely seek to make itself wealthier through Afghanistan’s mineral resources. As far as I am aware, China has been mining in Afghanistan for some time already, but the withdrawal will bolster their ability to do so. Pakistan, who has historically funded the Taliban, is an ally of China, and could use their influence in the region as well to further fund the Taliban and other terrorist or insurgent groups. Without any fear of reprisal from the West, terrorist groups will be able to use Afghanistan as their safe haven to train, recruit, and develop plans of attack. A group of ISIS has emerged in Afghanistan already, calling themselves ISIS-K.
As terrorist groups are allowed to gallivant in the region, what will happen in Iraq? Reflecting on my own experience in Iraq, I remember closing down many of the airfields in Iraq to not only draw down forces, but reallocate soldiers, marines, and resources to locations that were under a significant threat. Iran-backed militia groups were among the several complications in conducting missions in Iraq, and what influenced the evacuation of the US consulate in Basra as well.
During one of the last missions I ever conducted in Iraq, my teammate and I located a remote-controlled drone in the sky way above the aircraft, seemingly observing the airfield. We later learned that the base we were vacating was going to be contested between Iraqi forces and Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH), the Iran-supported group. A marine that was pulling security with us on the airfield was certain that a KH member was operating the drone. This should foreshadow that a complete (abrupt) drawdown in Iraq would surely give Iran the green light to expand their presence in the country, and the result could be eerily similar to what we are seeing in Afghanistan today.
What now?
Veterans who served and fought alongside the Afghan National Army, other coalition forces, and Afghan interpreters are rallying on social media, writing to their government representatives, calling them to act on rescuing those thousands of Americans and American allies remaining in Afghanistan. At this time, many of those stranded are unable to even make it past Taliban guards at the airport. Sources on the ground have said they have seen very few Americans boarding military aircraft out of Kabul, mostly at-risk Afghan citizens.
Come the 31st, there is no way that all Americans and all our allies will be evacuated. Part of what makes a veteran proud of his/her service is the “never leave a man behind” mentality that gets conditioned into our minds. This will be an incredibly difficult week for those that are on the ground, those that have been on the ground, and those who are tirelessly struggling to make it to the airport in time.